Laserfiche WebLink
Page A-4 <br /> TASK 3. Demand Forecast <br /> The monthly utility demand will be forecast for the next 50 years.An analysis of the historical water <br /> use will calculate the historical monthly gallons per capita per day(gpcd).These monthly gpcd's will be <br /> used to forecast the future demand using population projections. From this baseline forecast,the <br /> relationship of temperature and precipitation on water-use will be analyzed.The relationship of water- <br /> use and weather will be used to create a drought forecast of water demand.The drought analysis task <br /> will design the drought scenario for the demand forecast.A baseline forecast of monthly utility <br /> demand and monthly drought demand will be the results of this task. <br /> Subtasks: <br /> 1. Determine historical per capita demand (gpcd) <br /> 2. Determine weather-related (temperature, precipitation) demand elasticities <br /> 3. Determine drought per capita demand (drought gpcd) <br /> 4. Forecast drought demand <br /> 5. Compare drought demand with Lake Decatur drought yield to estimate drought supply gap <br /> Results and Products; <br /> • Baseline utility forecast <br /> • Droughtforecast <br /> • Projections of monthly demand, both during"normal"weather and during the design drought <br />