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Smith <br /> numerical value from zero (the threat is unlikely to occur and produce the consequence)to <br /> one (the threat is very likely to occur and produce the consequence). <br /> • Threat Likelihood Analysis:Conduct the threat analysis using the AWA j100 guidance to <br /> estimate the likelihood or frequency of malevolent threats using the proxy measure,best <br /> estimate,or conditional assignment and the probability of natural hazards and likelihood of <br /> dependency or proximity hazards.This is expressed in a numerical value from nearly zero <br /> (the threat is unlikely to occur)to one (the threat is certain to occur). <br /> 3. In order to conduct the Risk and Resilience Analysis,the following will be performed: <br /> ■ Calculate risk for each threat-asset pair as the product of the results from Consequence <br /> Analysis,Vulnerability Analysis,and Threat Analysis,using the following equation: <br /> Risk= Consequences x Vulnerability x Threat Likelihood=C x V x T <br /> ■ Create the Utility Resilience Index (URI) as outlined in J100 as: <br /> Operational-These indicators reflect the tactical capacity of the Utility to react quickly <br /> and/or cope with various incidents that have the potential to disrupt services. <br /> Financial-These indicators reflect the fiscal capacity of the Utility and supporting <br /> community to react quickly and/or cope with various incidents that have the potential <br /> to disrupt revenue. <br /> ■ Each of these indicators are numerical values from zero (not resilient) to one (highly <br /> resilient) designed to reflect the resilience of the Utility as a whole. <br /> 4. The methodology,findings, costs,and recommendations of the Risk and Resilience process <br /> will be documented in a report format,including an executive summary.An electronic copy <br /> of the draft Risk and Resilience Analysis Report will be provided to the Utility for review. <br /> CDM Smith will meet with the Utility to review this draft report.CDM Smith will incorporate <br /> written comments on this draft report into a final Risk and Resilience Assessment Report. <br /> The final submittal will include five hardcopies of the report in addition to raw electronic <br /> files of the final deliverable. <br /> 5. Certify the Risk and Resilience Assessment: CDM Smith will assist the Utility in completing <br /> the EPA certification process as needed.The certification details are available from EPA and <br /> require the water system name, PWSID#,the date certified,and a statement from the utility <br /> that it has conducted,reviewed, (and revised as needed),the Risk and Resilience <br /> Assessment. <br /> For Task 9,CDM Smith's services do not include any type of audit requiring CDM Smith to sample or <br /> test or otherwise validate the technical information provided in the Risk Assessment.CDM Smith's <br /> services do not include actual remediation of any compliance/security gaps. <br /> i2 � Page <br />