R2005-158 PLACING ON FILE FINAL REPORT

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FIVE YEAR SUPPORTIVE HOUSING PLAN FINAL REPORT III. Housinq Needs Assessment Analvsis of Annual Demand The project took several approaches to analyzing the demand for various types of permanent supportive housing among the chronicaily homeless in Decatur and Macon County. This interim report describes the various approaches and reaches tentative conclusions. Projected Number of Individuals Requiring Housing. The survey found all 173 individuals are currently in need of permanent housing. However, this estimate is tempered by finro factors, which likely offset each other. The estimate does not account for new people entering chronic homelessness, and therefore understates the need. On the other hand, the estimate does not account for persons who might not accept or retain permanent housing, thus overstating the need: • Increasing demand. To gauge fluctuations in demand, it would be helpful to be able to predict changes in the number of chronicalfy homeless. The research team tried three approaches. First, they looked at point-in-time surveys � conducted in the recent six years to see if trends emerged, but that was not fruitFul. "Chronic homelessness" was not recognized by HUD as a subgroup until � about 2001 and not counted separately until 2003. In the two years since then, the methods of counting the chronically homeless have changed.10 Second, the planning team reviewed data from this survey, which seemed to suggest a rapid influx of newly chronically homeless people over the past four years. However, these data were not felt to be sufficiently accurate to gauge changes in demand for housing. Third, the team interviewed nationally known researchers 10 This problem is not unique to Decatur. HUD's recommended methodology for counting the chronicatly homeless is rapidly evolving. The nature of the population makes them very difficult to enumerate. PAGE 13