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FIVE YEAR SUPPORTIVE HOUSING PLAN il <br /> FINAL REPORT i <br /> to see if modeis have been developed to predict fluctuations in chronic II <br /> homelessness, hoping to interpolate national data into the Decatur and Macon ' <br /> County population. Unfortunately, they were unabie to find any studies of recent <br /> fluctuations or predictive models for this population." <br /> The planning team suspects a relationship between the rate of persons released <br /> from incarceration and the rate of chronic homelessness. The evidence for such <br /> a link is anecdotal. However, the incidence of criminal convictions among the <br /> Decatur target population is very high (at 42%). Additionally, employers may be <br /> reluctant to hire ex-offenders and landlords reluctant to rent to them. This leads <br /> the team to speculate that upon release from prison, ex-offenders are unable to <br /> secure employment and unable to secure subsidized housing. They may depend <br /> on relatives and friends for a period and then enter homelessness. <br /> • Actual Demand versus Perceived Demand. It is not known how many of the <br /> 173 individuals would actually accep# housing — and successfully retain it— if <br /> housing were developed for them. Intuitively, one suspects that some percentage <br /> of the group would refuse housing, and some percentage would fail to stay in it. <br /> Heritage staff maintains that nearly alt of the chronically homeless would accept <br /> housing and would retain it if supportive services are provided. Heritage is <br /> supported by Andy Keller of Triwest, a nationally-recognized consultant who <br /> specializes in research with the MISA population, and who is the principal <br /> evaluator for Heritage's special MISA program. Dr. Keller believes that 95% of <br /> the target population would accept and retain housing. <br /> " Researchers contacted were Andy Kelle�of Triwest and David Pollio of Washington University in St. <br /> Louis. Dr. Pollio suggested that fluctuations occur as direct results of national policy(e.g., de- <br /> institutionalization of inentally ill persons in the 1980's, and zero-tolerance and mandatory sentencing for <br /> drug offenses in the 1990's). <br /> PA�e 14 <br />