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eharges. This will result in new users bein� taken away from cellular telephone carriers. Even more irT��ortant, the frustrated masses using wired telephone service from companies like US West, Pacific Telesis,NYNE;(, and others will start to migrate to PCS for all tlieir communications needs. Reed Hundt, Chairman of the FCC, i�as called wireless commu�iications companies "raiders of the focal loop". Fiis comments strengd�en the resolve of many companies to be PCS operators in order to gain new business or simply to protect what t}iey have. Industry Projections The PCS industry is unique in that a(most all research indicates high 6rowlh and high demand for PCS services end equipment. Globally,nationally, and by service segment, PCS promises to be one the fastest growing telecommunications areas over the next decade. According to a recent report by Frost& Suilivan, in 1993 the worldwide market for PCS amout�ted to a very minor $83 million. By the year 2000, the market is expected to reac}� $8 billion anci more than double to$l9 billion only two years later. Approximately,60 percent of this market will be in PCS services. The reason for the tremendous PCS growtl� prospects is that PCS will become the means for developit�g r�ations to establisli quality telecommunications infrastructure rapidly. I�i fact, according to Frost& Sullivan, over 50",�a of tlie world's current population has never used a telephone. ' The US market for PCS also stacks up well. A study published by nction Tnformation Services(AIS)oF Fairfax, I Virginia, predicts diat tliere will be almost 18 million US PCS subscribers in I 0 years. Aruival revenues are expected I to reach$8 billion. The Personal Communications Industry Association (PCIA) is perhaps the most optimistic about the growlh of PCS. It expects$8.5 billion in US PCS service revenues and approximately 15 rnillion subscribers by 2000, eclipsing Frost &Sullivan's global projections. Five years beyond that,these numbers aze expected to reach$17.5 billion a�id 40 million, respectively. In other research published by BIS Strategic Decisions of NonveU, Massaci�usetts,over 151 million US adiilts�re interested in wireless communications at work and at home. Of tl�ose surveyed and interested in PCS, 60 percent anticipate moving to new PCS equipment to replace existing communications services. If the argument is accepted that PCS is nothing but enhanced cellular, then cellular growth rates would bc cnough to convince a person of PCS'potential. In 1994, most major cellular operators erperienced doub(e-digit growtti. One operator,Southern New England Telecommunications,l�ad an 88.6 percet�t increase in subscribers over tlic previous year. Currently, new cellular subscribers are being added at a rate of 28,000 per day in the US. In addition to voice communications, PCS promises to provide clean, fast data communications. Todny, approximately 40 million workers l�nve jobs that require travel, and access to ofiice information systems is increasingly vital. BIS Strategic Decisions Found d�at wireless data service in t}�e US will generate$2.7 billion by 1998 and sustain an annual growth rate of 80 percent. It is easy to understand the end�usiasm a��d appeal that PCS offers to so miny major companies. Rarely, do so many industry and research analysts agree oii such a l�igh level of growtl� and potential. The Short-Term Realities for PCS Becoming a PCS carrier involves understunding three major near-teim obstacles in setting up a network nnci providing service. These include d�e licensing process established by tlle PCC, tl�e sVong competition likcly to be present in eacti market, and the higli costs to get going. These are discussed individually below. Licensing Complexities Becoming a PCS carrier is not an ensy, simple, or straig}�tforward tesk. Tl�c nllocation of licenses hes becn established by the FCC with auctions structured to get the liigl�est price. Tlie auction of radio spectn�m is rclatively new to the FCC, and the agency has reserved the right to modify niles as it sees necessary. These rules are not casy to understand and require the employment of a'knowledgeable attorney. FCC Commissioner Andrew Barrett pressed home the difficulty in adhering to rules and regulations for auctions and license acquisition. Speaking to potential PCS entrepreneurs at a seminar broadcast across the country Inst year, I�e said "I would emphasize that our auction rules must be studied chorougl�ly. Tlie application process, bidding n►Ies, lODIGY �19 Web Browser: Specific Information on PCS (http://www.cyberpeak.com/PCS/PC9_spec.htm) P�q� 4